CSIR CRRI JSA (Paragraph 32)
10:00
Since the imposition of President's Rule in Manipur on February 13, the state assembly has remained in suspended animation, following the BJP's failure to reach a consensus on a successor to former chief minister N Biren Singh. As the assembly has not been dissolved, it retains the possibility of being revived when the prevailing conditions allow for the formation of a government. Reflecting growing discontent with the present standstill, a group of 10 NDA MLAs met Governor Ajay Bhalla at Raj Bhavan on Wednesday, urging the formation of a popular government in the state. They claimed the support of 44 legislators in the 60-member Assembly (one seat currently lies vacant). However, the revocation of President's Rule appears unlikely in the near future- almost 25 months into the ethnic conflict, it is telling that peace remains the immediate priority, not government formation. On April 29, the same 10 MLAs, along with 11 other NDA legislators, had written to the Centre with a similar demand. Their push for a return to a popular government is understandable-after all, the BJP won a mandate in the 2022 Assembly election. The difficulty, however, lies in the nature of the proposed arrangement, which does not include representation for the Kuki-Zo communities. By their own admission, those who claim the support of 44 MLAs have not included the 10 Kuki-Zomi MLAs-seven of whom were elected on BJP tickets. The supposed consensus behind the push for a return of popular government, thus, reflects a consensus among the Meiteis, but not between the Meiteis and Kukis. The Centre's hesitation to revoke President's Rule acknowledges the persisting instability in the state-illustrated by the unrest in Imphal less than two weeks ago between protesters and security forces, over the alleged instructions to cover the word Manipur on a state-run transport bus (Chief Secretary Prashant Kumar Singh has expressed regret and announced an inquiry into the incident). While there is some consolation in the fact that there has been no violent standoff between the two communities in recent weeks, significant challenges remain-of rebuilding trust, addressing grievances, and tackling the structural issues that lie at the heart of the conflict. An estimated 3,000 looted weapons remain un-recovered. Thousands of displaced persons remain in relief camps. Kukis and Meiteis continue to be segregated between hill and valley. Only an inclusive political process that brings all stakeholders to the table can offer a path to lasting peace. Without such a process, even a well-intentioned return to a popular government risks another cycle of violence.