CSIR CRRI JSA (Paragraph 51)

10:00
For an economy that is undeniably in slowdown mode, it does come as a surprise that the first Budget of the Modi 2.0 government has eschewed any sort of pump priming, instead preferring to leave the job of stepping up investment to the private sector. The template for a growth process driven by monetary accommodation and fiscal prudence was spelt out rather clearly in the Economic Survey, tabled in Parliament on Thursday. If one were to compare this growth slide with the post-GFC period, it is clear that the Centre has consciously chosen not to go down the path laid out by the then finance minister Pranab Mukherjee. It is believed, and not without reason, that the fiscal stimulus then administered led to both deficit and inflation going out of gear. Expenditures were poorly managed, with corruption in delivery processes no doubt playing a role in the double digit inflation rates of the UPA-2 years. Yet, from there, it seems a tad excessive to altogether shut out the fiscal option to get the economy moving, particularly when there are better technological processes in place to ensure quality spending. An increase of Rs. 3.3 lakh crore in the projected expenditure of the Centre in 2019-20 over the revised estimates of 2018-19 is insignificant when seen against the Rs. 3.15 lakh crore increase in 2018-19 over the actuals of 2017-18 - given inflation and nominal GDP growth of 12 per cent projected in 2019-20. The fiscal squeeze is underscored in relation to capital expenditure: it has been slashed to Rs. 8.7 lakh crore in 2019-20 from Rs. 9.2 lakh crore in the revised estimates for 2018- 19, with Railways bearing the brunt. It would appear that uncertain revenue collections on both the direct taxes and GST fronts have prompted this fiscal conservatism. While the tax revenue estimates for 2019-20 are conservative in relation to the interim Budget, they seem ambitious when seen against the revisions made by the Controller General of Accounts for 2018-19. The Centre has budgeted a disinvestment mop-up of Rs. 1.06 lakh crore to plug this gap.